Module Title: Public Policy
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The citation method to be used for this paper is Harvard style.
Produce a 1,500 word analytical review essay on:
An assessment of the fiscal situation of an EU economy following the structure of the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council Fiscal Assessment Report.
Maximum word count 1,500 words.
Standard assessment regulations apply. You must reference your work as required by regulations and must include a bibliography.
3. Recovery is gradually broadening
Want relative stability in these numbers around 0
4. H1 GDP growth boosted by contract manufacturing
When you look at different countries fiscal position have to take in that there has been a change in how GDP is calculated this year
5. Irish fiscal advisory council
These graphs tell you how much interest you would have to pay
What is the current fiscal position of Ireland?
6. Deficit continues to fall
Everyone in the EU has a deficit besides Germany
4 components of European policy making that have to be complied with (assessed by the European semester):-
• Stability and growth pack – golden rule (when you violate SGP you trigger the excessive deficit procedure – potential GDP is calculated if running below can be in nominal deficit)
• Fiscal compact
• 6 pact
• 2 pact
7. Crisis leaves legacy of high debt levels
60% is the rule however put the line at 100% here as once you get over 100% things get really complicated
If it’s really high you’re looking at debt overhang
In Britain would be looking at around 85% now
8. Uncertainty around growth prospects
Put in error of plus or minus 1%
9. Macro and fiscal improvements presented opportunity to move public finances decisively into safer territory
10. General government debt
11. Deficit sensitive to growth shocks
Take calculations of all your revenue figures – what is the situation if growth is plus or minus 0.5% 1.5%?
You consistently have the ability to talk about figure sensitivity
From 2008 to 2014 had a drop in GDP growth
12. Importance of Ireland’s new budgetary framework
Luxemburg is a large tax avoidance country
14. Medium-term profiles in Budget 2015
15. Budget 2015 medium-term projections
3 big expenditures:-
• Social transfers
In Britain what would be these 3 areas expenditure trend
Go up in health and social transfers – more old people
Flat line in education
Germany education going down as less children so make up for rise in health and social transfers
In Ireland there’s been a baby boom so all areas are going to go up
In every country health is constantly going up
Also social transfers is a problem
NEETs – not in education, employment or training
In Britain NEETs are not a huge problem, however Spain, Italy and Greece this is a huge problem
The report itself
Irish ones considered to be very good
Debt sustainability analysis – .xls available to download from IMF
For the most part a lot of this data will be available for you to fill in
Look at debt sustainability analysis from other countries
Revenue, structural balance and sources of increase in debt to GDP ratio are important areas to look at
Will have lots data on European countries
Goes to regional level as well as country by country
Policy and surveillance
Databases and indicators
He encourages the use of graphs – make sure to explain them – make sure to reference them
Lay it out like a report
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